Maine adult chat room - Dating the business cycle in britain
First, the business cycle in China can be divided into the following four stages, based on whether GDP growth and the inflation rate are above or below their average values for the period concerned: (1) low growth and high inflation, (2) low growth and low inflation, (3) high growth and low inflation, and (4) high growth and high inflation (Figure 1).Looking at the period following the Lehman Brothers failure in September 2008, the Chinese economy has proceeded through the stage of low growth and high inflation (the last two quarters of 2008), the stage of low growth and low inflation (the first two quarters of 2009) and the stage of high growth and low inflation (the last two quarters of 2009).While China was still a small economy in 1992 when the two events last coincided, the situation will be very different in 2012.
In fact, the year-on-year rate of increase in the producer price index (PPI), a leading indicator of the CPI, peaked in May 2010 and has since fallen.
When forecasting the future direction of the Chinese economy, the historical pattern of business cycles serves as a useful guide.
Given its long history of real-side analysis, the Institute is the natural place to set out the basic facts on the business cycle and ensure their wider dissemination. “A Long View of the UK Business Cycle”, National Institute Economic Review, No 182, pp72-89.
The composition of our Business Cycle Dating Committee will be announced shortly.
Consequently, China will shift from monetary tightening to easing.